Global maritime issues
The impact of COVID-19
How will the COVID-19 pandemic affect the likelihood of the following issues occurring in the next 10 years?
Data from QUANTITATIVE
parts of the survey
Data from QUALITATIVE
parts of the survey
of respondents think the pandemic makes geopolitical tension more likely. Particularly, respondents anticipate escalation in the conflict between the US and China.72%
think trading patterns are more likely to change. Respondents foresee more regionalization, near-sharing, domestic production of essential goods, less dependence on China, and more.48%
said the pandemic will increase demand for sustainability. In fact, of all the environmental issues, this showed the sharpest increase in likelihood due to the pandemic.46%
said COVID-19 increases the likelihood of governance failure. As noted by several respondents, many seafarers experienced great difficulties during the pandemic, sometimes with little relief from authorities.45%
said insufficient access to finance increased in likelihood compared to last year. Many respondents commented that this could lead to bankruptcies and consolidation, increased scrapping of old ships, and lower rates of new-build orders.35%
said that the main issue the pandemic made less likely is fuel price increased.
The Global Maritime Issues Monitor 2020 is based on a survey conducted between April 29, 2020, and June 8, 2020, which was completed by senior maritime stakeholders from the Global Maritime Forum and Marsh’s multi-stakeholder networks. Respondents included board members, C-suite, and functional decision makers from the private sector, alongside government and civil society representatives. The sample represents a diverse network of maritime stakeholders from six continents. Respondents ranked a series of global maritime issues on their potential impact to seaborne trade, the likelihood of different events occurring over the next 10 years, and the maritime industry’s preparedness for these events. The survey looked at 19 general maritime issues, and sought to understand specific priorities related to pandemic. The responses were coded to allow comparisons. Arithmetic mean scores were calculated for each issue and used to rank them in terms of likelihood, impact, and preparedness. Leaders and experts were then asked to comment on and provide context for the findings between June 29, 2020, and August 14, 2020. The results were used to produce impact vs. likelihood vs. preparedness charts and to provide the supplementary evidence used throughout the report.